This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – July 2nd, 2026
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish sentiment decreased, while neutral sentiment and bearish sentiment increased, leaving neutral responses as the largest group.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 16.7 percentage points to 33.3%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 8.3 percentage points to 58.3%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 8.3 percentage points to 8.3%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
At the sector level, bullish sentiment increased in one of eight sectors, decreased in six of eight sectors, and was unchanged in one of eight sectors. Neutral sentiment increased in four of eight sectors, decreased in two of eight sectors, and was unchanged in two of eight sectors. Bearish sentiment increased in seven of eight sectors and decreased in one of eight sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector and health care (both at 40.0%), followed by energy, consumer discretionary, financials, and IT (all at 20.0%) and industrials (10.0%). The level of optimism is lowest for real estate (0.0%), followed by industrials (10.0%) and energy, consumer discretionary, financials, and IT (all at 20.0%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for energy (70.0%), followed by industrials and financials (both at 60.0%) and primary sector, health care, IT, and real estate (all at 50.0%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for consumer discretionary (20.0%), followed by primary sector, health care, IT, and real estate (all at 50.0%) and industrials and financials (both at 60.0%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (60.0%), followed by real estate (50.0%) and industrials and IT (both at 30.0%). Pessimism is lowest for primary sector, energy, and health care (all at 10.0%), followed by financials (20.0%) and industrials and IT (both at 30.0%).
International sentiment
For Australian stocks, neutral sentiment decreased, bearish sentiment increased, and bullish sentiment was unchanged. For U.S. stocks, neutral sentiment decreased, bearish sentiment increased, and bullish sentiment was unchanged. The two markets moved in the same direction across the three sentiment categories.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, was unchanged at 20.0% for Australian stocks and was unchanged at 40.0% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, decreased by 40.0 percentage points to 40.0% for Australian stocks and decreased by 20.0 percentage points to 20.0% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 40.0 percentage points to 40.0% for Australian stocks and increased by 20.0 percentage points to 40.0% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If investors were to purchase equity, the proportions of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation and expressing uncertainty about their equity allocation increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in small cap shares, large cap shares, and funds decreased compared to last week.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 30.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares decreased by 6.7 percentage points to 10.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds decreased by 30.0 percentage points to 20.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 10.0 percentage points to 10.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 30.0 percentage points to 30.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.