This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey you can do so by updating your member profile at this link. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm. Each week you will receive a new email invitation to the current survey.
This Week’s Results:
The “amber” section of these dials show the middle quartiles (ie, 25th – 75th percentile) since the NZSA / UC Retail Investor Sentiment survey began in 2020.
This week’s commentary – July 24th, 2024
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 32.1 percentage points to 70.0%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, decreased by 11.4 percentage points to 30.0%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 20.7 percentage points to 0.0%.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for IT (73.7%), followed by health care (57.9%) and energy (47.4%). The level of optimism is lowest for industrials, real estate and consumer discretionary (all at 36.8%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for financials (57.9%), followed by primary sector (55.6%) and industrials (52.6%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for real estate, consumer discretionary, and IT (all at 21.1%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary and real estate (both at 42.1%), followed by industrials (10.5%). Pessimism is lowest for financials (0.0%), followed by IT and health care (both at 5.3%).
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares is 36.8% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares is 21.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds is 21.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation is 10.5% this week.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation is 10.5% this week.
Six-week Retail Investor Sentiment – NZ50 Index
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.