This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – July 2nd, 2025
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish and neutral sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market increased in this week’s survey while bearish decreased.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 24.1 percentage points to 54.6%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 6.3 percentage points to 45.5%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 30.4 percentage points to 0.0%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Neutral and bearish decreases for most sectors, while bullish increases for most sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for IT (70.0%), followed by financials, industrials, health care and primary sector (all at 60.0%). Bullish sentiment is lowest for real estate (40.0%), followed by consumer discretionary (44.4%) and energy (50.0%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for consumer discretionary (44.4%), followed by financials, health care, primary sector and energy (all at 40.0%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for real estate, Industrials and IT (all at 30.0%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for real estate (30.0%), followed by consumer discretionary (11.1%) and energy (10.0%). Pessimism is lowest for IT, primary sector, health care and financials (all at 0.0%).
International sentiment
Bullish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market increased. Simultaneously, neutral and bearish decreased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same except for neutral.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 24.6 percentage points to 70.0% for Australian stocks and by 26.4 percentage points to 40.0% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, decreased by 2.7% at 20.0% for Australian stocks and increased by 17.3 percentage points to 40.0% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 21.8 percentage points to 10.0% for Australian stocks and by 43.6 percentage points to 20.0% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in small cap shares or funds, increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in large cap shares, or nothing, or uncertain about their future investment allocation, decreased.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares increased by 26.4 percertage points to 40.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares decreased by 27.3 percentage points to 0.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds increased by 11.8 percentage points to 30.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation decreased by 7.3 percentage points to 20.0% this week.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 10.0% this week.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.