This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
The “amber” section of these dials show the middle quartiles (ie, 25th – 75th percentile) since the NZSA / UC Retail Investor Sentiment survey began in 2020.
This week’s commentary – December 4th, 2024
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 24.2 percentage points to 76.2%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, decreased by 13.7 percentage points to 14.3%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 10.5 percentage points to 9.5%.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector and IT (both at 75.0%), followed by financials (65.0%). The level of optimism is lowest for industrials (38.9%), followed by energy and consumer discretionary (both at 50%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for industrials (61.1%), followed by consumer discretionary and energy (both at 45.0%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for IT (20.0%), followed by primary sector (25.0%) and financials (35.0%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary, energy, and health care (all at 5.0%). Pessimism is lowest for primary sector, financials and real estate (all at 0.0%).
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 17.3 percentage points to 61.9% for Australian stocks and by 9.5 percentage points to 57.1% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 29.8% at 38.1% for Australian stocks and by 16.7 percentage points to 33.3% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 12.5 percentage points to 0.05% for Australian stocks and by 7.2 percentage points to 9.5% for U.S. stocks.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 6.5 percentage points to 14.3% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares increased by 17.3 percentage points to 38.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds decreased by 14.9 percentage points to 14.3% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 9.5% this week.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 7.1 percentage points to 23.8% this week.
Six-week Retail Investor Sentiment – NZ50 Index
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.