NZ Retail Investor Sentiment Index

This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.

 

Have your say!

If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey you can do so by updating your member profile at this link. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm. Each week you will receive a new email invitation to the current survey.

 

This Week’s Results:

 

The “amber” section of these dials show the middle quartiles (ie, 25th – 75th percentile) since the NZSA / UC Retail Investor Sentiment survey began in 2020.

This week’s commentary – February 21th, 2024

New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish and bearish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while neutral increased and higher than its eight-week moving average.
  • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 31.6%.
  • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 8.5 percentage points to 52.6%.
  • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 7.7 percentage points to 15.8%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bearish decreases for most sectors, while bullish and neutral increases for most sectors.
  • The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for IT (50.0%), followed by financials (34.2%) and real estate (31.6%). The level of optimism is lowest for industrials (10.5%), followed by consumer discretionary (13.2%), and primary sector (29.0%).
  • The level of neutral sentiment is highest for energy, health care and industrials (all at 65.8%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for consumer discretionary (34.2%), followed by IT (44.7%), and primary sector (50.0%).
  • The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (52.6%), followed by Industrials (23.7%) and primary sector (18.4%). Pessimism is lowest for health care and energy (both at 2.6%), followed by IT (5.3%).
International stock market sentiment
Bullish and neutral regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market increased. Simultaneously, bearish sentiment decreased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same.
  • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 4.8 percentage points to 57.9% for Australian stocks and by 11.5 percentage points to 55.3% for U.S. stocks.
  • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 5.6 percentage points to 36.8% for Australian stocks and by 4.1 percentage points to 44.7% for U.S. stocks.
  • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 10.4 percentage points to 5.3% for Australian stocks and by 15.6 percentage points to 0% for U.S. stocks.
 

Six-week Retail Investor Sentiment – NZ50 Index

 

 

Historic Data

There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:

  • the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
  • the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
  • the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
  • the maximum response
  • Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.