NZ Retail Investor Sentiment Index - New Zealand Shareholders' Association

This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.

Have your say!

If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey you can do so by updating your member profile at this link. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm. Each week you will receive a new email invitation to the current survey.

This Week’s Results:

The “amber” section of these dials show the middle quartiles (ie, 25th – 75th percentile) since the NZSA / UC Retail Investor Sentiment survey began in 2020.

This week’s commentary – April 24th, 2024

New Zealand stock market sentiment

Bullish and Neutral sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while bearish increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 23.3%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, decreased by 5.1 percentage points to 46.7%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 5.9 percentage points to 30.0%.

New Zealand sector level sentiment

Bullish decreases for most sectors, while neutral and bearish increases for most sectors.

The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for IT (43.3%), followed by energy (33.3%) and financials (26.7%). The level of optimism is lowest for industrials and consumer discretionary (both at 6.7%), followed by real estate (13.3%).
The level of neutral sentiment is highest for energy and health care (both at 63.3%), followed by primary sector and real estate (both at 56.7%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for consumer discretionary (30.0%), followed by IT (43.3%) and industrials (53.3%).
The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (63.3%), followed by Industrials (40.0%) and real estate (30.0%). Pessimism is lowest for energy (3.3%), followed by IT (13.3%) and financials (20.0%).

International stock market sentiment

Neutral and bearish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market increased. Simultaneously, bullish decreased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased at 18.3% to 30.0% for Australian stocks and by 8.1 percentage points to 33.3% for U.S. stocks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 12.1 percentage points to 50.0% for Australian stocks and by 1.8 percentage points to 46.7% for U.S. stocks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 6.2 percentage points to 20.0% for Australian stocks and by 6.8 percentage points to 20.0% for U.S. stocks.

Six-week Retail Investor Sentiment – NZ50 Index

Historic Data

There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:

the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
the maximum response
Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.