NZ Retail Investor Sentiment Index

This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.

Have your say!

If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey you can do so by updating your member profile at this link. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm. Each week you will receive a new email invitation to the current survey.

This Week’s Results:

The “amber” section of these dials show the middle quartiles (ie, 25th – 75th percentile) since the NZSA / UC Retail Investor Sentiment survey began in 2020.

This week’s commentary – June 12th, 2024

New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish and Bearish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while neutral increased.
  • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 23.1%.
  • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 28.5 percentage points to 65.4%.
  • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 25.3 percentage points to 11.5%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bearish decreases for most sectors, while bullish and neutral increases for most sectors.
  • The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for energy (65.4%), followed by IT (57.7%) and primary secor (23.1%). The level of optimism is lowest for consumer discretionary (3.9%), followed by industrials and real estate (both at 11.5%).
  • The level of neutral sentiment is highest for primary sector, financials and industrials (all at 65.4%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for consumer discretionary (30.8%), followed by energy (34.6%) and IT (42.3%).
  • The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (65.4%), followed by real estate (38.5%) and industrials (23.1%). Pessimism is lowest for IT and energy (both at 0%), followed by financials (11.5%).
International stock market sentiment
Bullish and neutral regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market increased. Simultaneously, bearish decreased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same.
  • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 2.2% to 65.4% for Australian stocks and by 10.3% to 57.7% for U.S. stocks.
  • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 9.7 percentage points to 30.8% for Australian stocks and by 3.0 percentage points to 34.6% for U.S. stocks.
  • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 11.9 percentage points to 3.9% for Australian stocks and by 13.4 percentage points to 7.7% for U.S. stocks.
Personal investment sentiment
Compared to last week, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in term deposits has risen. Conversely, the proportion of those expecting a decrease or expressing uncertainty about their term deposit investments has fallen. A same trend is observed with bonds, except there has been an increase in the proportion of investors expressing uncertainty regarding their bond investments.
  • The number of investors anticipating an increase in their investment allocation towards term deposits and bonds has risen compared to last week, with increases of 15.2% to 50.0% for term deposits and of 34.6% to 52.0% for bonds, respectively.
  • The number of investors anticipating a decrease in their investment allocation towards term deposits and bonds has declined compared to last week, with decreases of 18.1% to 38.5% for term deposits and of 33.6% to 36.0% for bonds, respectively.
  • The number of investors who are uncertain about whether they will increase or decrease their holdings in term deposits has increased and bonds has fallen compared to last week, with decreases of 0.5% to 3.9% for term deposits and increases of 3.3% to 12.0% for bonds, respectively.

Six-week Retail Investor Sentiment – NZ50 Index

 

Historic Data

There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:

  • the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
  • the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
  • the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
  • the maximum response
  • Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.