This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – July 16th, 2025
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish and bearish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while neutral increased.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 7.6 percentage points to 45.0%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 12.9 percentage points to 55.0%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 5.3 percentage points to 0.0%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bullish and bearish decreases for most sectors, while neutral increases for most sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for IT (57.9%), followed by financials (52.6%), and energy and health care (both at 47.4%). Bullish sentiment is lowest for real estate (40.0%), followed by consumer discretionary (44.4%) and energy (50.0%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for consumer discretionary (73.7%), followed by industrials (64.7%), and real estate (57.9%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for IT (31.6%), followed by primary sector and health care (both at 47.4%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (21.1%), followed by industrials (17.7%) and real estate(15.8%). Pessimism is lowest for financials (0.0%), followed by health care and energy (both at 5.3%).
International sentiment
Bullish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market decreased. Simultaneously, neutral and bearish increased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 5.0 percentage points to 52.9% for Australian stocks and by 2.3 percentage points to 55.6% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 4.3% at 41.2% for Australian stocks and by 1.8 percentage points to 33.3% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.9% for Australian stocks and by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in funds, or uncertain about their future investment allocation increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in small or large cap shares, or nothing, decreased.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 0.6 percertage points to 5.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 30.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds increased by 13.3 percentage points to 30.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation decreased by 13.3 percentage points to 20.0% this week.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 9.4 percentage points to 15.0% this week.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.