NZ Retail Investor Sentiment Index

This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.

Have your say!

Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.

This Week’s Results:

The “amber” section of these dials show the middle quartiles (ie, 25th – 75th percentile) since the NZSA / UC Retail Investor Sentiment survey began in 2020.

This week’s commentary – May 14th, 2025

New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish and bearish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market increased in this week’s survey while neutral decreased.
  • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 5.4 percentage points to 40.0%.
  • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, decreased by 6.2 percentage points to 40.0%.
  • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 0.8 percentage points to 20.0%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bullish and bearish increases for most sectors, while neutral decreases for most sectors.
  • The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector (52.2%), followed by energy (43.5%) and IT (34.8%). Bullish sentiment is lowest for industrials (13.6%), followed by consumer discretionary (21.7%) and financials (30.4%).
  • The level of neutral sentiment is highest for health care (60.9%), followed by IT (52.2%) and financials (47.8%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for consumer discretionary (21.7%), followed by real estate (34.8%) and primary sector (39.1%).
  • The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (56.5%), followed by industrials (40.9%) and real estate (34.8%). Pessimism is lowest for primary sector and health care (both at 8.7%), followed by energy (13.0%).
International sentiment
Bullish and bearish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market increased. Simultaneously, neutral and decreased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same except for bearish.
  • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 15.7 percentage points to 54.2% for Australian stocks and by 2.3 percentage points to 29.2% for U.S. stocks.
  • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, decreased by 16.7% at 33.3% for Australian stocks and by 1.9 percentage points to 25.0% for U.S. stocks.
  • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 1.0 percentage points to 12.5% for Australian stocks and decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 45.8% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in large cap shares, or nothing, increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in small cap shares, or uncertain about their future investment allocation, decreased.
  • The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 4.2 percertage points to 12.5% this week if they were to purchase equity.
  • The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares increased by 4.2 percentage points to 20.8% this week if they were to purchase equity.
  • The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds was stable at 25.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
  • The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 4.2 percentage points to 33.3% this week.
  • The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 8.3% this week.

Six-week Retail Investor Sentiment – NZ50 Index

 

Historic Data

There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:

  • the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
  • the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
  • the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
  • the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
  • Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.