This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – January 28th, 2026
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while neutral and bearish increased.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 57.1%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 1.4 percentage points to 21.4%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 1.4 percentage points to 21.4%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bullish decreases for most sectors, while neutral and bearish increases for most sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for real estate (58.3%), foolowed by financials and IT (both at 53.9%). The level of optimism is lowest for energy and health care (both at 23.1%), followed by industrials (27.3%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for health care (69.2%), followed by industrials (63.6%) and energy (61.5%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for financials (30.8%), followed by real estate (33.3%) and consumer discretionary (46.2%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for energy and financials (both at 15.4%), followed by industrials (both at 63.6%). Pessimism is lowest for IT (0.0%), followed by consumer discretionary and primary sector (both at 7.7%).
International sentiment
Bullish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market decreased. Simultaneously, neutral increased in this week’s survey while bearish unchanged. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same except for neutral unchanged.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 14.3 percentage points to 57.1% for Australian stocks and by 14.3 percentage points to 50.0% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 14.3% at 21.4% for Australian stocks and remained at 21.4% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, remained at 21.4% for Australian stocks and increased by 14.3 percentage points to 28.6% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in small cap shares, funds or uncertain about their future investment allocation, increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in large cap shares or nothing, decreased.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares increased by 8.8 percentage points to 23.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares decreased by 12.6 percentage points to 23.1% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds increased by 8.2 percentage points to 15.4% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 30.8% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 0.6 percentage points to 7.7% this week if they were to purchase equity.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.