This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – June 25th, 2025
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish and neutral sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while bearish increased.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 9.6 percentage points to 30.4%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, decreased by 20.9 percentage points to 39.1%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 30.4 percentage points to 30.4%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Neutral and bearish decreases for most sectors, while bullish increases for most sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector (65.2%), followed by real estate (47.8%) and IT (40.9%). Bullish sentiment is lowest for financials (8.7%), followed by industrials (22.7%) and health care (26.1%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for health care and financials (both at 56.5%), followed by energy (47.8%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for consumer discretionanry (27.3%), followed by primary sector (30.4%) and IT (36.4%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (45.5%), followed by financials (34.8%) and industrials (31.8%). Pessimism is lowest for primary sector (4.4%), followed by real estate and energy (both at 13.0%).
International sentiment
Bullish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market decreased. Simultaneously, neutral and bearish increased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same except for neutral.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 26.8 percentage points to 45.5% for Australian stocks and by 27.5 percentage points to 13.6% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, increased by 6.1% at 22.7% for Australian stocks and decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 22.7% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 20.7 percentage points to 31.8% for Australian stocks and by 28.4 percentage points to 63.6% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in small cap shares or funds, decreased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in large cap shares, or nothing, or uncertain about their future investment allocation, increased.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 21.4 percertage points to 13.6% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares increased by 2.3 percentage points to 27.3% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds decreased by 6.8 percentage points to 18.2% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 17.3 percentage points to 27.3% this week.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation increased by 8.6 percentage points to 13.6% this week.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.