This collaboration between NZSA and University of Canterbury (UC) Business School is part of our mission to promote a thriving market and to be the voice of investors. A sentiment index will contribute to the understanding of investor behaviour and the overall market and allow you to get first access to the data and make better-informed investment decisions.
Have your say!
Each week, a random selection of NZSA members are sent an email to complete the survey. If you wish to participate in the NZ Investor Sentiment Index Survey anyway, you can click on this link anytime – also contained in each Briefing newsletter. The sentiment survey is conducted weekly from Thursday 12:01am to Wednesday 11:45pm.
This Week’s Results:
This week’s commentary – January 7th, 2026
New Zealand stock market sentiment
Bullish sentiment of individual investors about the short-term direction of the NZ stock market decreased in this week’s survey while neutral increased and bearish remained the same.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 13.3 percentage points to 60.0%.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will essentially stay unchanged over the next six months, increased by 13.3 percentage points to 33.3%.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, remained the same at 6.7%.
New Zealand sector level sentiment
Bullish and bearish decreases for most sectors, while neutral increases for most sectors.
- The level of optimism among individual investors is highest for primary sector (80.0%), followed by IT (53.9%) and financials (53.3%). The level of optimism is lowest for health care (33.3%), followed by industrials and consumer discretionary (both at 40.0%).
- The level of neutral sentiment is highest for health care (60.0%), followed by real estate (50.0%) and industrials (40.0%). Neutral sentiment is lowest for primary sector (20.0%), followed by consumer discretionary and energy (both at 33.3%).
- The level of pessimism is highest for consumer discretionary (26.7%), followed by industrials and energy (both at 20.0%). Pessimism is lowest for primary sector (0.0%), followed by health care (6.7%) and real estate (7.1%).
International sentiment
Bullish regarding the short-term direction of the Australian market increased. Simultaneously, neutral and bearish decreased in this week’s survey. Investor sentiment about the short-term direction of the U.S. market is the same except for bearish.
- Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 20.0 percentage points to 78.6% for Australian stocks and by 3.6 percentage points to 28.6% for U.S. stocks.
- Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay flat over the next six months, decreased by 17.9% at 7.1% for Australian stocks and by 6.0 percentage points to 35.7% for U.S. stocks.
- Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 14.3% for Australian stocks and increased by 2.4 percentage points to 35.7% for U.S. stocks.
New Zealand personal investment sentiment
If the investor were to purchase equity, the proportion of investors planning to increase their investment in large cap shares, funds and nothing increased compared to last week. Conversely, the proportion of those who planning to increase their investment in samll cap shares, or uncertain about their future investment allocation, decreased.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their small cap shares decreased by 14.8 percentage points to 6.7% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their large cap shares increased by 5.2 percentage points to 26.7% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating an increase in their funds increased by 4.3 percentage points to 40.0% this week if they were to purchase equity.
- The proportion of investors anticipating no change in their equity allocation increased by 12.9 percentage points to 20.0% this week.
- The proportion of investors who express uncertainty about their equity allocation decreased by 7.6 percentage points to 6.7% this week.
Historic Data
There have been wide variations since the survey began (January 2020) in Investor Sentiment. The following chart shows:
- the lowest recorded response for each type of sentiment (the lower ‘whisker’)
- the recorded responses between 25th – 75th percentile (the ‘box’)
- the median response score – ie, exactly 50% of scores are above and below this number
- the maximum response (excluding ‘outliers’)
- Interestingly, NZ Investors have displayed a greater tendency towards expressing “negative” (bearish) sentiment since the survey’s inception.